Phân tích xu thế biến đổi lượng mưa theo vùng sinh thái ở tỉnh Kiên Giang trong giai đoạn từ năm 1992 đến năm 2023
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Abstract
This study analyzed rainfall variability across three typical ecological zones in Kien Giang Province from 1992 to 2023, using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results indicated that the total annual rainfall generally showed no significant changes, but clear spatial and temporal variations existed. In the freshwater zone, rainfall significantly increased in January, September, and annually, with a notable rise in Chau Thanh. Rainfall trends in Giong Rieng and Go Quao showed significant decreases in August (p ≤ 0,05). In the brackish water zone, rainfall increased in September and during the dry season at Kien Luong, whereas a significant decrease was observed in August at Hon Dat and Ha Tien (p ≤ 0,05). In the saline water zone, rainfall trends increased in September and at An Bien, while Vinh Thuan experienced a slight decrease (p ≤ 0,05). The study confirmed the influence of climate change on rainfall distribution, highlighting the need for appropriate adjustments in production strategies and water resource management tailored to each ecological zone.
Tóm tắt
Trong nghiên cứu, việc phân tích biến động lượng mưa tại ba vùng sinh thái điển hình Kiên Giang, giai đoạn 1992 – 2023 đã được thực hiện bằng cách sử dụng kiểm định phi tham số Mann-Kendall và ước lượng Sen’s slope. Kết quả cho thấy tổng lượng mưa hàng năm nhìn chung không thay đổi đáng kể, nhưng tồn tại sự khác biệt rõ rệt theo không gian và thời gian. Vùng nước ngọt, lượng mưa tăng có ý nghĩa thống kê vào tháng 1, tháng 9 và cả năm, nổi bật tại Châu Thành. Xu hướng giảm lượng mưa tại Giồng Riềng và Gò Quao vào tháng 8 (p ≤ 0,05). Tại vùng nước lợ, lượng mưa tăng vào tháng 9 và mùa khô tại Kiên Lương, nhưng giảm vào tháng 8 ở Hòn Đất và Hà Tiên, với các xu hướng đều có ý nghĩa thống kê (p ≤ 0,05). Vùng nước mặn, xu hướng tăng vào tháng 9 và tại An Biên, trong khi Vĩnh Thuận giảm nhẹ (p ≤ 0,05). Kết quả nghiên cứu giúp khẳng định tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến phân bố lượng mưa, đòi hỏi điều chỉnh chiến lược sản xuất và quản lý tài nguyên nước phù hợp.
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