Đánh giá xu thế lượng mưa và nhiệt độ sử dụng kiểm định phi tham số tại tỉnh Kiên Giang, Việt Nam
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Abstract
This study assessed climate change trends in Kien Giang using rainfall data from 1979 to 2022 and temperature data from 1992 to 2022, analyzed on annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. Non-parametric methods, including the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s Slope, Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK), and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), were applied. The results revealed statistically significant increases in total dry-season rainfall, the number of rainy days during the dry season, and annual rainy days (p ≤ 0,05). In contrast, wet-season rainfall showed a slight but statistically insignificant decline. Rainfall in January increased notably (p = 0,024), reflecting a trend toward wetter drier seasons. Maximum temperature (Tmax) exhibited a slight decreasing trend, whereas minimum temperature (Tmin) increased significantly, particularly in the early months of the year, indicating a clear warming trend. Despite the slight decline in Tmax, the average temperature (Tavg) continued to rise. The findings confirmed the presence of climate change in Kien Giang, characterised by increasing dry-season rainfall and rising minimum temperatures. These changes emphasized the urgent need for adjustments in water resource management and the development of long-term climate adaptation strategies.
Tóm tắt
Nghiên cứu đánh giá xu thế biến đổi khí hậu tại Kiên Giang dựa trên dữ liệu lượng mưa giai đoạn từ năm 1979 đến 2022 và nhiệt độ từ năm 1992 đến 2022, phân tích theo các thang đo năm, mùa và tháng. Sử dụng phương pháp kiểm định phi tham số gồm: MK, Sen’s Slope, SMK và ITA, kết quả cho thấy tổng lượng mưa, số ngày mưa mùa khô và số ngày mưa trong năm có xu hướng tăng (p ≤ 0,05), trong khi lượng mưa mùa mưa có xu hướng giảm nhẹ nhưng không đáng kể. Lượng mưa trong tháng 1 tăng (p = 0,024), phản ánh tăng lượng mưa vào mùa khô. Nhiệt độ, Tmax có xu hướng giảm nhẹ, trong khi Tmin lại tăng mạnh, đặc biệt tháng đầu năm, phản ánh xu thế ấm lên. Nhiệt độ trung bình (Ttb) vẫn tăng mặc dù giảm nhẹ của Tmax. Kết quả nghiên cứu xác nhận xu hướng biến đổi khí hậu tại Kiên Giang, nổi bậc sự gia tăng lượng mưa mùa khô và nhiệt độ tối thiểu, từ đó nhấn mạnh yêu cầu cấp thiết trong việc quản lý tài nguyên nước và xây dựng chiến lược ứng phó dài hạn.
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https://doi.org/ 10.1002/joc.4866