PhẠm ThỊ HỒng Vân *

* Tác giả liên hệ (phamthihongvan@vanlanguni.edu.vn)

Abstract

The two–steps system – GMM estimator with dynamic panel was used in this paper to investigate the effects of stock market and credit market size, and their interaction on economic growth of developing countries over the 2002 – 2017 period. The results showed that stock market and credit market size stimulated growth while their interaction reduced growth. Research also showed that the inflation in developing countries was at a level that promoted the economic growth; simultaneously, technology element, government effectiveness and regulatory quality had positive impacts on growth.

Keywords: Credit market, developing countries, economic growth, stock market size

Tóm tắt

Nghiên cứu nhằm mục đích xem xét tác động giữa quy mô thị trường chứng khoán, thị trường tín dụng và tương tác của chúng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia đang phát triển trong giai đoạn 2002 – 2017 bằng phương pháp S-GMM sai phân hai bước trên mô hình bảng động. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy quy mô thị trường chứng khoán, thị trường tín dụng tác động thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế, trong khi tương tác giữa chúng làm giảm tăng trưởng kinh tế. Bên cạnh đó nghiên cứu cũng cho thấy lạm phát tại các quốc gia đang phát triển còn ở mức thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế; đồng thời, công nghệ, hiệu quả chính phủ và chất lượng luật pháp tác động tích cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế.
Từ khóa: Các nước đang phát triển - Developing countries, Quy mô thị trường chứng khoán - Stock market size, Tăng trưởng kinh tế - Economic growth, Thị trường tín dụng - Credit market

Article Details

Tài liệu tham khảo

Andersen, T.B., and Tarp, F., 2003. Financial liberalization, financial and economic growth in LDCs. Journal of International Development, 15(2): 189–209.

Arestis, P., Demetriades, P.O., and Luintel, K. B., 2001. Financial development and economic growth: the role of stock markets. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 33: 16–41.

Atje, R., and Jovanovic, B., 1993. Stock markets and development. European Economic Review, 37(2-3): 632–640.

Barro, R. J., Sala-I-Martin, X., Blanchard, O. J., and Hall, R. E., 1991. Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 107–182.

Beck, T., and Levine, R., 2004. Stock markets, banks, and growth: panel evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28: 423–442.

Berthelemy, J., and Varoudakis, A., 1996. Economic growth, convergence clubs, and the role of financial development. Oxford Economic Papers, 48: 300–328.

Blundell, R., and Bond, S., 1998. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1): 115–143.

Brown, J. R., Martinsson, G., and Petersen, B. C., 2017. Stock markets, credit markets, and technology – led growth. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 32: 45–59.

Cheng, S., 2012. Substitution or complementary effects between banking and stock markets: Evidence from financial openness in Taiwan. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 22: 508–520.

Cobb, C. W., andDouglas, P. H., 1928. A Theory of Production. American Economic Review, 18 : 139–165.

Cömert, H., and Uğurlu, E. N., 2015. The Impacts of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis on Developing Countries: The case of the 15 most affected countries. IDEAs Working Papers Series 3/2015. Economics Research Center (ERC), 39 pages.

Cooray, A., 2010. Do Stock Markets Lead to Economic Growth?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32: 448–460.

Deb, S. G., and Mukherjee, J., 2008. Does stock market development cause economic growth? A time series analysis for Indian economy. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 21(3): 142–149.

Demirguc-Kunt, A., and Maksimovic, V., 1998. Law, finance, and firm growth. Journal of Finance, 53(6): 2107–2139.

Dicle, M. F., Beyhan, A., and Yao, L. J., 2010. Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India. International Review of Economics & Finance, 19(2): 313–339.

Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir, M S., and Yetkiner, H., 2017. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Some Theory and More Evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2): 290–306.

Filer, R.K., Hanousek, J., and Campos, N.F., 1999. Do stock markets promote economic growth? Working Paper No. 267, William Davidson Institute. University of Michigan, 22 pp.

Goldsmith, R. W., 1969. Financial structure and development. New Haven. Yale University Press, 114–123.

Harris, R., 1997. Stock Markets and Development: A Re-assessment. European Economic Review, 41: 139–146.

King, R.G., and Levine, R., 1993. Finance, entrepreneurship, and growth - Theory and evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3): 513–542.

Levine, R. and Zervos, S., 1996. Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth. The World Bank Economic Review, 10: 323–339.

Levine, R., and Zervos, S., 1998. Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. American Economic Review, 88(3): 536–558.

Lucas, R. E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1): 3–42.

McKinnon, R.I., 1973. Money and capital in economic development. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC, 184 pp.

Narayan, P. K., and Narayan, S., 2013. The short-run relationship between the financial system and economic growth: New evidence from regional panels. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29: 70–78.

Ricardo, D., 1817. On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (3th edition 1821.), Batoche Books. Canada, 333 pp.

Rioja, F., and Valev, N., 2014. Stock markets, banks and the sources of economic growth in low and high income countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 38(2): 302–320.

Rodriguez, E., and Rodrik, D., 1999. Trade policy and economic growth: Askeptic’s guide to the cross – national Evidence. NBER Working Paper no. 7081. Cambridge, MA, 82 pp.

Romer, P. M., 1986. Increasing returns and long – run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5): 1002–1037.

Schumpeter, J.A., 1911. The theory of economic development; an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle. Harvard University Press. Cambridge, MA. 225 pp.

Seetanah, B., Subadar, U., Sannassee, R. V., Lamport, M & Ajageer, V., 2012. Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from least developed countries. Berlin Working Paper on Meney, Finance, Trade and Development 05/2012, 26 pages.

Shaw, E.S., 1973. Financial deepening in economic development. Vol. 270. Oxford University Press, New York, xii, 260 pages.

Solow, R. M., 1956. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70: 65–94.

Tondl, G., 2001. Convergence after divergence? Regional growth in Europe, Springer. New York

Trejos, S., and Barboza, B. 2015. Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 36: 110–125.

Ulaşan, B., 2015. Trade openness and economic growth: panel evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 22 (2): 163–167.

Veld, J., Raciborski, R., Ratto, M., and Roeger, W., 2011. The recent boom–bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles. European Economic Review, 55(3): 386–406.

Vinayagathasan, T., 2013. Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies. Journal of Asian Economics,26: 31–41.

Virtanen, T., Tölö, E., Virén, M and Taipalus, K., 2018. Can bubble theory foresee banking crises? Journal of Financial Stability,36: 66–81.

Wu, J., Hou, H., and Cheng, S., 2010. The dynamic impacts of financial institutions on economic growth: Evidence from the European Union. Journal of Macroeconomics. 32: 879–891.