Application of the multiplicative components model to forecast Vietnam’s rice export output
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Abstract
This study applies the multiplicative components model to analyze and forecast Vietnam’s rice export volume through 2027, using time series data from 2020 to 2024 compiled by the Vietnam Food Association. The research follows a four-step methodological framework: (1) identifying the characteristics of the time series, (2) adjusting for seasonal effects, (3) estimating the trend function, and (4) generating forecasts. The results demonstrated that the model achieves high accuracy, with the actual export volume in the first quarter of 2025 falling within the 95% confidence interval and closely matching the point forecast. Forecasts through the fourth quarter of 2027 indicate an upward trend, with projected export volumes reaching approximately 2.89 million tons, within a confidence range of 2.13 to 3.64 million tons. Based on these findings, the study proposes several practical recommendations to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of rice export forecasting in Vietnam in the coming years.
Tóm tắt
Trong nghiên cứu này, mô hình nhân tính đã được ứng dụng nhằm phân tích và dự báo sản lượng gạo xuất khẩu của Việt Nam đến năm 2027, dựa trên dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian giai đoạn 2020 - 2024 được tổng hợp từ Hiệp hội Lương thực Việt Nam. Quy trình nghiên cứu gồm bốn bước: (1) nhận diện đặc điểm chuỗi dữ liệu, (2) điều chỉnh yếu tố mùa vụ, (3) ước lượng hàm xu thế và (4) dự báo. Kết quả cho thấy mô hình đạt độ chính xác cao, với giá trị thực tế quý I năm 2025 nằm trong khoảng tin cậy 95% và gần khớp với giá trị dự báo điểm. Việc dự báo đến quý IV năm 2027 cho thấy sản lượng gạo xuất khẩu có xu hướng tăng 2,89 triệu tấn (khoảng tin cậy từ 2,13 đến 3,64 triệu tấn). Trên cơ sở đó, một số khuyến nghị thực tiễn đã được đề xuất nhằm nâng cao độ chính xác và hiệu quả công tác dự báo sản lượng gạo xuất khẩu của Việt Nam trong thời gian tới.
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